Perspectives

FOCUS ON REAL ESTATE

My Investment Strategy: Find Tenants Who Stay Put

After a career of nearly three decades investing in commercial real estate, it is my opinion that the sector performs best when these conditions exist: tenants are reluctant to leave because they have few options; developers have limited options to add new supply; and tenants’ demand for space is growing, requiring more real estate. Who are my dream tenants?

Before I identify them, let me back up. I invest in commercial real estate via real estate securities, which includes Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)1 and C-Corporations.2 Most of these companies typically specialize in one property type, giving investors the chance to invest in “pure plays” of property types they otherwise may not have investment access to, such as shopping malls, cell-tower networks, data centers, casinos or ski areas. Specialization requires that the people who put these securities together become experts in the underlying properties.

That being said, my investment strategy is to identify companies whose properties have the following characteristics (or some subset thereof): there are only a limited number of companies in the industry (for instance, three companies own almost all cell towers in the US); new developers face high barriers to entry (i.e., building out a network of cell phone towers); tenants face high barriers to exit (i.e., a medical center with large and expensive diagnostic equipment like MRIs that is nearly impossible to move); and tenants have a healthy underlying business that requires more and more real estate (i.e., data centers).


Burland East III, CFA

Chief Executive Officer,
Portfolio Manager,
American Assets Capital Advisers (AACA)

 

The views expressed are the personal views of Burl East of AACA and do not necessarily reflect the views of Altegris.

 

In my experience, I have also found potential opportunities within the following examples, with a nod to the characteristics aforementioned: campus-based housing (limited supply and students don’t frequently leave), gaming (licensing creates barriers to entry), research lab space (robust demand for new medicines), manufactured housing (supply limited by “not in my backyard” protestors) water (healthy demand with too few facilities to serve growing population) ski areas (nearly impossible to build), and infrastructure like bridges and roads (limited suppliers with the technical know-how).

Sector Selection



*This chart is presented for illustrative purposes only and represents the perspective of the Author as of March 2017. Sector attractiveness is subject to change at any time in response to market conditions and/or viewpoint of the Author and should not be construed as investment advice.

The characteristics work in tandem and in some cases independently, to create a competitive landscape where the tenant has few(er) options to move or play one building owner against another. These properties can command higher occupancy rates and higher rents, which in turn, may potentially create more valuable portfolios for shareholders through enhanced dividends and higher real estate values. And by the way, these conditions can exist anywhere geographically—location and markets are not as important (of course, there is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate profits or avoid losses).

By contrast, I generally avoid companies that invest in “generic” real estate, where the tenant considers the space fungible and where price plays an important part in their decision to rent. This includes industrial warehouses, office buildings, hotels, apartment buildings or most retail outlets. Tenants in these properties have too many options. If warehouse rents soar in Dallas, for example, a developer can bring in “tilt ups” and have a new warehouse ready for occupancy in under four months. There’s no barrier to entry for developers and no barrier to exit for tenants.

Commercial real estate suffered in the aftermath of 2008 financial crisis, but it is my belief that commercial real estate is now in the mid stages of a bull market. In the case of real estate, bull markets have historically been long (7-10 years) while bear markets have been short (~2 years).3 Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results, but we have been building less, and in effect, the water is building up behind the dam. In my opinion, as unmet demand grows, the value of existing properties rises, potentially leading to higher returns for investors.




1 A REIT (real estate investment trust) is a type of real estate company that mainly owns and operates income-producing real estate; some engage in financing real estate. Most REITs trade on major exchanges.

2 A C-Corporation generally refers to any corporation that is public and for-profit, unless the corporation elects the option to treat the corporation as a flow-through entity.

3 Source: NAREIT https://www.reit.com/investing/index-data/monthly-index-values-returns


Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not ensure profit or protect against loss in a positive or declining market. There is no guarantee any investment will achieve its objectives, generate profits, or avoid losses.

The views expressed are the personal views of Burl East of AACA and do not necessarily reflect the views of Altegris. Nothing herein should be construed as investment or tax advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

It is important to note that all investments are subject to risks that affect their performance in different market cycles. Equity securities are subject to the risk of decline due to adverse company or industry news or general economic decline. Bonds are subject to risk of default, credit risk, and interest rate risk; when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. REITs are affected by the market conditions in the real estate sector, changes in property value, and interest rate risk.

Alternative investments involve a high degree of risk and can be illiquid due to restrictions on transfer and lack of a secondary trading market. They can be highly leveraged, speculative and volatile, and investor could lose all or a substantial amount of an investment. Alternative investments may lack transparency as to share price, valuation and portfolio holdings, and are subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. Complex tax structures often result in delayed tax reporting. Alternative investment managers typically exercise broad investment discretion and may apply similar strategies across multiple investment vehicles, resulting in less diversification. Trading may occur outside the United States which may pose greater risks than trading on US exchanges in US markets.

Past results are not indicative of future results. Mutual funds involve risk including possible loss of principal. An investment in an alternatives strategy mutual fund should only be made after careful study of the prospectus, including the description of the objectives, principal risks, charges, and expenses of the fund.

The analyses herein are based on numerous assumptions and past market conditions. Different benchmarks, market conditions and other assumptions could result in materially different outcomes. The reference to the statements or opinions of persons or firms not affiliated with Altegris is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research, and should not be viewed as investment advice. The inclusion of such does not constitute endorsement, sponsorship by, or affiliation with Altegris with respect to any persons or firms named.


AMERICAN ASSETS CAPITAL ADVISERS
American Assets Capital Advisers, LLC (“AACA”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser specializing in real estate securities, including investments in real estate investment trusts (REITs), gaming, lodging, real estate operating companies (REOCs), home-building, real estate services, real estate finance companies, land, infrastructure and equity-related derivatives, and may also invest in debt, convertible debt and preferred securities. AACA manages separate accounts and a mutual fund as the sole sub-adviser. AACA is wholly-owned and controlled by Soledad Realty Capital, Inc. and American Assets Investment Management, LLC.

Altegris and AACA are not affiliated.

1175-NLD-5/3/2017